Topic of the Week - May 8, 2007 - Will WoW Standup to the next wave of MMO's?
This weeks Topic of the Week we look at the longevity of the World of Warcraft and how long we think it can last. I have discussed this in the past in little pieces here and there, however it is still valid and current. Maybe even more so now, over 2 years after WoWs initial release. The question really comes down to, with so many new and exciting MMO's on the way, will WoW stand up?
As we all know Wow has subscribers almost in the 10's of millions now, the same as the entire population of belgium!
For that to dissipate in a year is impossible no matter how good a new MMO is. The shere maths of a 2year disbandment would be hilarious. it would require 416666 people to leave per month every month. I think blizz would notice and make alterations if that was the case and that could only evere happen if there were massive technical issues!
I think it will stand for the next couple of years. People may drift away from WoW, but slowly. I think WoW will fall in 3-5years, I can't see all the players being so fickle as to mass exodus is all.
If Warhammer has the longevity I can see it as the new king, but the next wave needs time, time for WoW to die down, time to prove itself and knock WoW off.
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There's nothing conventional about wisdom, there's nothing common about sense. Ratholorn - 70 Dwarf Warrior <Molotov> Aman'Thul
I might say that a game could be made which would appeal to more people but I can't think of a single one in development.
Warhammer is a niche game. It will surely do very well, but only with a fraction of the users of WoW. Every game is a niche game. Warcraft is the only broad-based, broad-market game that I know of.
Like all good things, WoW will end. So far it's been a MMORPG juggernaught, taking names and laying down the law like noone's business. But something better will come out. Probably soon, with the new systems out now, and stuff like that. Mmm... Metroid Prime online... I can dream, can't I?
When youre #1, there will always be people gunning for you. This is not anything new, nor is it exclusive to the industry. You cannot avoid this type of competition.
There really are only 2 core things you can do about this from a business perspective.
1) Keep your product #1. Innovation, staying ahead of the competition, paving the way, raising the bar, and Retaining your current customers by any means possible.
2) Hope for your competition to be sub-standard, watch them fall on their face, and scoop up the pieces for pennies on the dollar, incorporating said failure into your asset catagory.
Now, before anyone makes some Vanguard -> #2 connection, I'm talking purely from a business standpoint... read: Not Product Specific.
If youre talking product specific? I think the only real threat out there currently is LOTRO. Its different, fun, not too terribly difficult, yet still challenging.
Im putting my WoW Raiding toons on the shelf to sink my teeth into this one for awhile.
I might say that a game could be made which would appeal to more people but I can't think of a single one in development.
Warhammer is a niche game. It will surely do very well, but only with a fraction of the users of WoW. Every game is a niche game. Warcraft is the only broad-based, broad-market game that I know of.
I agree. It's mentioned that Warhammer fans will have no problem plunking down $15/mth to play as they've spent hundreds or thousands of dollars on their armies. I'd suggest that expenditure could very well keep them away from an online version. People who play Warhammer may tend to prefer personal interaction over a game table and would not want to be wasting their investment by sitting in front of a computer screen.
I believe WoW will stand until... the next Blizzard game comes out. Their standard for quality is unbelievable. They spent something like 5 years on Ghost and scrapped it because they didn't think it was good enough. I completely agree that those other games will take a chunk out of the WoW player base. I can also see WoW being less than 50% of the total MMO player base, but not because of one game. WoW will always have the highest player count until Blizzard outdoes themselves. They will continue to balance and rebalance the game.
Logistics cause another major problem for other companies. WoW already has the server system laid down for a second Blizzard game 4-5 years down the road. If a smaller franchise wants to take over WoW, they better be ready for server problems. During the first major boom of registration, WoW servers were down a few times a month. This may not seem like alot, but if a player is used to the server stability of current WoW, this may bring some players back from a new game with a sudden boom of registration. Smaller games need to be ready if they want to succeed.
Lastly, Blizzard rarely creates a new idea. They are the masters of taking an idea and perfecting it. With patches and expansion they will stay even with any ideas other companies come up with.
On a side note, the cloning idea sounds intriguing, especially when WoW vets no longer want to level an alt to level 80 or 90.
Yes, For at least 2 more years, nothing will touch it.
I was tempted to choose:
One of the game listed above will steal its spot soon.
I think WAR, Warhammer Online, has the best chance of knocking out WoW.
While I am not a fan of the tabletop game I am a fan of the fluff surrounding it and WH40K's fluff as well.
EA, which bought Mythic, has a lot of money and resources to put into game development and marketing plus you can see them eye'ing the WoW subscription base very hungrily. Mythic has the reasonably successful DAoC MMORPG under their belt already.
WoW has shown the MMORPG developers a rather blatant example of what "works" for millions of people. They would be idiots not to learn from what Blizzard is showing them.
Of course no matter how smart you are you can learn the wrong lessons from others' examples.
So if Mythic makes a slightly grittier version of WoW, that's dumbed down a bit from DAoC, and places it in a very rich storyline like WH then they could put the hurt on Blizzard's subscription numbers.
Of course, even so, the game might just stink or it could be a big success. I will definately give it a try whenever it comes out in 2008. After all, it's got orcs!
By the by, a coworker who plays DAoC has a friend who claims to be alpha/beta testing WAR. His friend hates WAR because, he claims, it is more like WoW than DAoC.
I know this is completely hearsay from an unverified source, but it lines up with what I expect Mythic to do.
Topic of the Week - May 8, 2007 - Will WoW Standup to the next wave of MMO's?
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